A famous pollster has warned that the SNP could be reduced to a handful of seats in the next general election following a catastrophic by-election defeat.
Labour defeated Humza Yousaf’s party in Rutherglen and Hamilton West with a larger-than-expected swing of more than 20%.
Professor Sir John Curtice, a polling specialist, believes the SNP may be reduced to six MPs if a similar swing occurs across Scotland in next year’s general election.
“The swing to Labour is markedly higher than I think even Labour expected, and certainly most of us expected,” Prof Curtice added.
“This looks much more like the kind of result we might have expected in a by-election in Scotland, in the west of Scotland, before the 2014 independence referendum, after which, of course, Labour’s representation in Scotland collapsed.
“With nearly 59 percent of the vote, Labour’s share of the vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was back in the 2010 general election.
“And if – obviously it’s a big if – the swing since 2019 were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole, you are talking of Labour being back to having about 40 seats and the SNP being back down to not much more than half a dozen seats.”
Sir John added that it could put Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on course for Downing Street.
He said: “This result very firmly confirms the direction of travel indicated by the polls and that Labour do pose a serious challenge to the SNP’s continued dominance at Westminster.
“That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election because, if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.
“But also the kinds of increases that Labour have registered in their vote in this by-election, what they achieved in Selby, this is the kind of results that you see in advance of general elections when parties are on course to win.”
Labour candidate Michael Shanks won 17,845 votes in Thursday’s by-election, well ahead of the 8,399 returned for SNP rival Katy Loudon.
After securing more than 58 percent of the votes cast, Mr Shanks now has a majority of 9,446.
Labour now has two MPs in Scotland – far off its more than 40 in 2010 before its representation collapsed after the 2014 independence referendum.
SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf admitted it was a “disappointing night” for his party, which has been plunged into chaos by Nicola Sturgeon’s departure and a police probe into its finances.