Millions of homes in England will have greater energy bills this winter than they did last year, with over half (47%) of those affected belonging to the lowest tenth of households.
According to the Resolution Foundation, more than one-third (35%) of English homes, or 7.2 million households, will face a rise.
The anticipated increase comes despite the fact that the Ofgem energy price ceiling is scheduled to fall beginning in October.
However, the Resolution Foundation has warned that the predicted headline fall in bills masks wide heterogeneity for households.
Ofgem, which will announce the new price cap tomorrow, is expected to announce the price cap on a like-for-like basis will fall by seven percentage points to around £1,925 from October 1, according to a Cornwall Insight forecast.
The price cap was set at £2,074 a year for a typical household on a ‘dual fuel tariff’ and paying by direct debit from July 1.
The leading forecaster said the cap will also appear lower from October at £1,823 because Ofgem has changed how it calculates the average energy bill.
The April to June 2023 price cap was £3,280 but households on typical use paid £2,500 under the government’s energy price guarantee.
The price cap figures do not mean customers cannot pay more than this amount for their energy bills.
The amount people pay depends on actual household usage as well as meter and payment type.
The aforementioned figures are based on people paying direct debit on a standard variable tariff, known as a default tariff.