A former cabinet minister has forecast that Labour will win 50–100 seats as Brexit supporters shift to Sir Keir Starmer.
According to recent polling, voters in Brexit-supporting coastal areas have switched back to the Labour Party after endorsing Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019.
Following this year’s election, Lord O’Donnell, who oversaw the civil service under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and David Cameron, predicted that Labour’s majority may reach up to 100 seats.
“If you look at the evidence the polling says there’s been a consistent Labour lead of 18 points, roughly, for a long time now,” he told the BBC’s Today podcast. “I’m in the 50-100 seat majority if I had to put on it,” he added.
But Lord O’Donnell urged his civil service colleagues to “prepare for all possible outcomes”.
“Do not assume… one of the reasons I think the prime minister is deciding to wait is that things could change,” he said.
His remarks coincided with a poll by think tank Labour Together indicating that voters on the coast prefer Labour to the Conservatives by a 44 percent to 24 percent margin, with the Liberal Democrats coming in at 11%.
Coastal areas, those within five miles of the sea, have disproportionately backed winning causes during the last 40 years, with three-quarters supporting Margaret Thatcher in 1987 until Tony Blair increased Labour’s share of seaside seats in 1997.
Most coastal seats supported Brexit and around 70 per cent voted Conservative in 2019.
Now, it looks as though the roles have reversed once more, with Labour having a net favorability rating of 7% among voters in the coastal regions and the Conservatives falling to minus 32%.