Brexit remains at the top of the political agenda seven years, four prime ministers, two general elections, and one pandemic later. But what has changed since then?
On June 23, 2016 – seven years ago today – the British people went to the polls to vote on the defining political issue of our time.
The historic result saw the Leave camp triumph by 52 to 48 percent, with almost three-quarters of the electorate turning out.
Just over three and a half years later, on January 31, 2020, the UK withdrew from the EU – becoming the only country to do so before or since.
The years since the referendum have been so marked by turmoil in Westminster, crises abroad and in Britain’s very own public services – not to mention the coronavirus pandemic – that a sober look back at how things have changed has been a challenge in itself.
Now that the dust has somewhat settled, we plotted how far the UK has come between 2016 and 2023, in terms of politics, migration, the economy, international standing and attitudes on Brexit itself.
Politics
Just over a decade has passed since then-Prime Minister David Cameron declared his support for a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in his now-infamous Bloomberg speech. Having led the failed Remain charge, he resigned the morning after the vote.
Professor Iain Begg, Research Fellow at the European Institute, said: “We’ve seen seven years of non-stop chaos in the political system.
“From Mr Cameron’s careless attitude in saying: ‘Right, I caused the trouble, I’m now legging it.’ To all the struggles Theresa May had in Parliament – all those cliffhanger votes and the attempts to try to unravel the Brexit decision which ultimately failed.”
Back in June 2016, Boris Johnson was a year into his term as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and had just stepped down as Mayor of London. Alongside UKIP leader Nigel Farage, he was one of Brexit’s most fervent supporters.
Less than three years after the Conservatives stormed to a landslide general election victory in December 2019 with Mr Johnson at the helm, he now finds himself ousted from his premiership and parliamentary seat. The man who would ultimately “Get Brexit Done” pinned his political demise on those wishing to “reverse the 2016 referendum result” in his resignation statement.
In an Ipsos Mori poll conducted between June 11 and 16, 2016, the Tories had a one-point lead over Labour with 35 to 34 percent leaning their way if an election were held the next day. The pollster’s latest hands a 16-point lead to the opposition.
Professor Begg believes the name of the game now is “just trying to minimise the damage to the Conservative Party and the Tory brand.” He claimed: “Anyone with any sense in the Conservative Party will know they’re going to lose the general election next year, so the question is just by how much? Some of that is going to be attributed to cleavages induced by Brexit, but also by the way Brexit has been managed.”
Migration
After Eurosceptic UKIP’s founding ambition was achieved, Mr Farage went on to head the Brexit Party, which advocated for a no-deal withdrawal in 2019. Leaving that behind him too, taking up regular Sunday hosting duties on GB News, last month he declared that “Brexit has failed.”
“We’ve not delivered on Brexit and the Tories have let us down very, very badly,” he said.
A key issue at the time of the referendum was migration. As a result of the civil war in Syria and ongoing conflicts in Kosovo and Afghanistan, 1.3 million people knocked on Europe’s borders to request asylum in 2015 – the most in a single year since the Second World War.
The vast majority of them were coming overland through Turkey, and President Recep Erdogan repeatedly threatened to “flood” the Continent with migrants throughout the year. The EU’s principle of free movement of people was taken as a guarantee an untenable number would make their way to the UK. In the latter stages of the Brexit campaign, Mr Farage also highlighted the potential influx of Turks themselves, should the country’s EU accession bid be accepted.
In 2015, net migration to the UK – the number of people immigrating to the country minus those who emigrated – came to 330,000. “Taking back control of our borders” was one of Brexit’s most-repeated battlecries. Net migration in 2022 came to 606,000 – almost double.
The UK introduced its own points-based immigration system in 2021 as free movement ended – the following year saw record numbers of illegal Channel crossings in small boats as people sought to circumvent it. Addressing this is one of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five priorities, as well as a pressing and expensive task for the Home Office.
Professor Begg said: “At the same time we’ve seen labour shortages in areas that EU citizens used to fill in the past, from fruit picking to care services. So I wouldn’t say it [Brexit] is having a negative impact on the labour market, but it is having a disruptive effect.”
Economy
In June 2016, there were 747,000 vacancies in the UK job market, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Seven years later, this tally has soared to just over a million – although this can also in large part be attributed to widespread redundancies made during the pandemic, positions which have only sluggishly been refilled.
This has been recognised as a significant burden on the UK economy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget back in March – dubbed the “back-to-work budget” – included a number of provisions aimed at replenishing the workforce by tempting those who had chosen early retirement or become economically inactive back into employment.
Professor Begg said: “Brexit is not the economic calamity that some of the protagonists during the referendum said it would be, but it has had a negative impact on the economy.”
UK GDP – the combined value of all goods and services produced in the economy – came to £2.11trillion in 2016. By 2019, this had risen to £2.24trillion. As of 2022, this had fallen to £2.23trillion, with the UK the only G7 country with an economy below pre-pandemic levels.
More recently, however, there is cause for optimism. The total value of UK trade hit £1.74trillion in the year to April, a record high and a 20 percent increase on the previous 12 months. The UK also narrowly avoided recession with the economy growing by 0.1 percent – the EU, meanwhile, wasn’t so lucky.
Diplomacy
Beyond its economic weight, the UK has also long been a star player on the world stage in terms of diplomacy. This shone through in the Government’s leading role in the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February.
Professor Kevin Featherstone, director of the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics (LSE) said: “The war in Ukraine has been a golden opportunity for the UK to show its relevance in international matters, even after Brexit. Boris was a key cheerleader for Western military support to Zelensky.”
Since the invasion began, the UK has consistently been the second-placed dispenser of military aid to Ukraine, after the US. The £5.6billion sent towers above Germany’s £4.2billion, according to the Kiel Institute.
Professor Begg, however, has a less rosy outlook. He said: “What is apparent is that the UK’s standing in fora such as the G20, or G7 is not quite what it was. The Americans now first go turn to Brussels, no longer firstly the UK in spite of all the visits we hear about. But maybe that’s the Biden administration and Trump would have been different.”
Nonetheless, at the G20 summit in Bali last November, US president Joe Biden referred to the UK as their “closest ally and best friend” in meeting with the Prime Minister.
Attitudes
In its final opinion poll ahead of the referendum, taken between June 21 and 22, 2016, Ipsos Mori found 48 percent of the population sided with Leave, while 52 percent leaned Remain. Exactly the opposite came true the following day.
According to the Economic and Social Research Council, in polling conducted seven years later, between June 19 and 22, 2023, 56 percent of the public would vote to rejoin the EU, while 44 percent would rather stay out.
On this, Professor Begg said: “The deed is done, and therefore subsequent polls asking what would you have done if circumstances allowed you to do it again don’t really get you very far politically.”
The British political class appear to hold the same view. The Opposition has, in the past few months, established “red lines” around rejoining the single market or the customs union, although “reconnecting with Europe” is one of its key foreign policy lines.