While Labour has made big gains in London, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and trusted election guru Sir John Curtice announced that the party’s vote share outside the city has actually decreased since the seats were last up for election in 2018.
As things stand, Curtice believes the Opposition has no clear path to No 10.
“Labour are probably somewhat disappointed,” Prof Sir John told the BBC. He figured that the results were not a performance “that indicated a party that is on course for winning a general election with a majority”.
According to Prof Sir John, based on yesterday night’s results, there was no guarantee that Sir Keir Starmer’s party would win the most seats in the next general election.
“Outside of London, as compared to 2018 when these seats were last contested, it looks like their seats are down slightly,” he said.
“And for a party that is trying to regain ground in the so-called Red Wall seats in the Midlands and north of England, this wasn’t quite the progress they wanted.”
Curtice said that there is still a very substantial legacy of the impact of Brexit on both the character of the Conservative and Labour supporters.
“The Conservatives is still much stronger in Leave areas, and therefore Labour is still struggling to make more progress there.”
With yesterday night’s municipal election results, Sir Keir’s party reinforced its hold on the capital. Wandsworth, Margaret Thatcher’s “favourite council,” as well as Barnet and Westminster, were all won by the party.
The party is even on track to have its greatest performance in the city since the creation of London’s 32 boroughs in 1964.
Prof Sir John continued: “In terms of seats won and lost, while actually its made net gains in London, it’s made a slight net loss outside of London.
“So outside of London, it’s a rather different story. And of course, Labour can’t win Westminster Parliament by simply winning Westminster council.”
His analysis paints a very different picture to the one being portrayed by Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer has been talking up the results as proof his party is “back on track”.
He said the elections “sent a message to the Prime Minister that Britain deserves better” as he reacted to the results.
“This is a big turning point for us,” he told cheering supporters this morning. “From the depths of 2019 in that general election, back on track, winning in the north.
“Cumberland! Southampton! We’ve changed Labour and now we’re seeing the results of that.”
He added: “What brilliant teams we’ve got, all the fantastic work we’ve put in.
“When it comes to London, you can hardly believe those names come off our lips.
“Wandsworth! They’ve been saying for years ‘You’ll never take Wandsworth from us.’ We’ve just done it! Westminster! It’s an astonishing result.”
Prof Curtice had stated that the Conservatives appeared to be on course to lose 200 to 300 seats, but that Labour was failing outside of London.
Tory sources also played down the Labour showing, saying it was a ‘bad night’ for Sir Keir outside the capital.